Future shock: Valley towns in the Digital Age

BY DANIEL WEINTRAUB
SACRAMENTO

H.G. Wells got it half-right when, writing 100 years ago about the effects of mechanical and scientific progress on human life, he predicted that the idea of "town" and "city" would go the way of the horse?drawn mail coach.

Wells accurately foresaw how the communications and transportation revolutions would lead to a decentralized society where commerce and industry no longer needed to be massed in a huge metropolis to produce goods efficiently.

But as urban analyst Joel Kotkin argues in his latest book, "The New Geography," place still matters ? in some ways more than ever.

It's just that in the increasingly mobile Digital Age, quality of life has replaced natural resources as the key factor driving decisions about where companies locate and expand.

For California's Central Valley, that's a trend that can cut two ways. Valley cities that intelligently position themselves to be part of the new economy might see their prospects soar. And those communities that ignore the opportunity do so at their peril. They could become the next century's equivalent of today's decaying inner cities, or worse simply fade away, like the ghost towns of the old West.

Kotkin spoke last week at the annual conference of the Great Valley Center, a private, Modesto based agency that pushes Valley leaders to think creatively about the region's future. He warned his audience not to believe those who say the Internet?based economy is a passing fad, the Hula?Hoop of the 1990's that has peaked and is now fading as a major economic influence.

Kotkin, a Pepperdine University fellow who has written extensively about the changing economy, noted that the Internet has spread faster than any other major technology, reaching one?quarter of the American population in just seven years. It took the personal computer 15 years to reach that level of saturation, television 26 years, the telephone 35 years and the automobile more than a half?century. .
"This thing has hit us, it's hit us very fast," Kotkin said. "And it is in its very early stages." Already, he said, the information?based economy is changing the urban landscape.

Fast?emerging "Nerdistans" Raleigh, N.C.; Plano, Texas; Redmond, Wash. ?are becoming home to the companies that build the hardware for the high?speed Internet and write the software that makes it work. These communities are relatively new, clean and quiet, and have a large base of highly skilled workers for whom cultural amenities, if not irrelevant, are an afterthought.

The people who provide the Internet's content ? the graphic arts industry and the media and entertainment companies ? have flowed toward what Kotkin calls "boutique cities," or portions of major cities, such as Santa Monica on the edge of Los Angeles or the neighborhoods south of Market Street in San Francisco. If Santa Monica, which he describes as "to the left of Fidel Castro," and San Francisco, which has "one of the more dysfunctional" municipal governments around, can attract large number of start?up companies, that's a pretty good sign of shifting priorities, an indication that taxes and regulation, while still important, are no longer crucial factors for investors.

Also coming into their own in this economy are places Kotkin labels "Valhallas" ? rural towns with good telecommunications connections and something more. Jackson Hole, Park City and Santa Fe are examples ?cities with scenic vistas, access to recreation hot spots and an attitude that's attractive to young, hip professionals.

What can the Valley's cities do to find a place on this bandwagon? First, install fiber cable capable of carrying data at super?high speeds. Manning, Iowa, bypassed by the private phone and cable companies, created a municipal firm to do the job, Kotkin said, and has emerged as a regional powerhouse as a result.

"Don't let the telecommunications giants determine whether you live or die," he said.

Second, Kotkin suggests, make sure your city retains its character.

High?tech workers, especially on the software side, have shown a preference for living in interesting places that give them plenty to do when they're not pulling allnighters in front of the computer screen.

"You've got to offer the sophisticated person something more than a strip mall," Kotkin said. "Developing town centers is very important. It provides a sense of place, a sense of history."

Some of this is already happening in the Valley. Folsom, an old town with a historic center that's been preserved and will soon be enhanced, might be a California Valhalla. Merced, if and when the University of California campus is built, could become a Nerdistan.

And Kotkin suggests that there might even be pockets along the Sierra outside Bakersfield where, if the right entrepreneur gets an itch, a high?tech center could evolve. Places such as Fresno, which have lost much of their small?town charm but still lack more attractive big?city features, might find it more difficult, Kotkin said.

What's clear is that the Valley's economy faces a stressful transition as agriculture, long its dominant sector, confronts increasing competition from abroad. How much attention Valley leaders pay to the emerging digital economy could will determine whether their cities prosper and thrive or wither into dusty reminders of an earlier era.

Daniel Weintraub is a.c columnist for the Sacramento Bee. E-mail him at sweintraub@sacbee.com
Reprinted from The Press Democrat, Wednesday, May 16, 2001